The leap to owning a fully automated vehicle will not be like the leap from horse and buggies to “tin lizzies.”

Many estimates predict that we will see fully automated vehicles in the next couple of years. But whether the average person will be able to afford one or want to drive one is another question.

The likely first purchasers of these vehicles may be fleet operators that buy vehicles in bulk quantity. A car rental company might, for example, have “geo-fenced” cars that might serve the metropolitan area around an airport and go no farther.

Rideshare companies such as Uber are already experimenting with fully automated vehicles and may render that chatty, affable driver a thing of the past.

In this article, we look at some of the resistance to assistive technologies that may exist.

Recent surveys show that the majority of people have concerns about the safety of self-driving cars, ranging from moderately concerned to downright frightened.

There are few who say they have complete confidence in fully automated vehicles.

According to a survey conducted by AAA, three quarters of U.S. drivers would be afraid to drive in a fully automated car. AAA’s survey said that women and people over age 55 fear it the most.

A University of Michigan study showed that, “In comparison to the respondents in the U.K. and Australia, respondents in the U.S. expressed greater concern about riding in self-driving vehicles, data privacy, interacting with non-self-driving vehicles, self-driving vehicles not driving as well as human drivers in general, and riding in a self-driving vehicle with no driver controls available.”

Is resistance futile? According to some projections, fully automated cars will be common in 20 years. In a controlled experiment, a partially automated beer truck made a delivery without a driver behind the wheel for the highway portion of the trip. Once the beer truck entered the city, a truck driver took over driving duties.

But will fully automated cars erode the aspirational driver experience on which so much of car marketing is based? There was a scare a few years back when a University of Michigan study showed that fewer younger people were getting licenses. Fewer drivers mean fewer car purchases. But that proved to be a temporary phenomenon as millennials were second only to boomers with 4 million cars purchased in 2015.

Whether or not America’s love affair with the automobile is the product of strong marketing, the next generation of drivers may be more concerned about what they can do with the extra time they’d have if they don’t have to pay attention to the road.

The conventional wisdom has been that younger consumers are more comfortable with new technology. A study by Volkswagen in Germany showed that people quickly became more comfortable with “robot cars” after they had a chance to spend some time in one.

So barring a calamity, people eventually may embrace assistive technologies. And even those people who simply like to drive will breathe a sigh of relief knowing that they can take the wheel anytime they like. However, our notion of who is driving whom becomes more in question in highly automated vehicles.

So here are some of the questions that drivers are asking and engineers are attempting to answer:

Can a fully automated vehicle be hacked?

Right now? Yes. It has been demonstrated that the sensors on even the most advanced assistive technology-equipped vehicles can be fooled cheaply and readily by a motivated tinkerer. Recently, two “white-hat hackers” (professionals who hack to expose weaknesses) took complete control of a Jeep Cherokee’s UConnect System, “which controls everything from the navigation system to a driver’s ability to make calls.” Although the car manufacturer addressed the vulnerabilities, this could become a greater problem as more vehicles have outside digital connections.

What about getting personal information about me from my fully automated car?

While the fully automated car will know your home and work locations, credit card information and recent locations, it may not be able to share that information with a hacker if it isn’t online.

Will I need a license for a fully automated vehicle?

Yes. Under current regulations, highly automated vehicles still require a human driver to be at the ready. So, we’re still a long way from piling a group of children into a fully automated vehicle and sending them off to a little league game. It is unclear, at this point, if the vehicle itself, will require a license. Stay tuned…

Will I need insurance?

If regulations of fully automated cars in the future require a human driver to be present, he or she will probably need insurance. Furthermore, as seen in the case of a fatal Tesla crash, a driver can still be at fault even though the partially automated vehicle was doing the driving. But the good news is that your insurance rates should go down and as collisions decrease.

Fully automated cars present a legal dilemma for the insurance industry and manufacturers, according to a paper by Bryant Walker-Smith. The safer a car is, the more it will cost to manufacture and insure. On the other hand, fully automated vehicles should reduce the number of collisions and the costs to insurance companies.

Will my fully automated vehicle be able to communicate with other fully automated vehicles?

V2V, or vehicle to vehicle communication, will help to relay information about traffic jams or obstacles to other vehicles, possibly making traffic flow more efficiently. V2I, or vehicle-to-infrastructure systems, can allow cars to speak to traffic lights, for example, in order to know when the light is going to change. Of course, in a future with a mix of vehicles, there will be the wild card of the unpredictable or reckless driver.

Is there any kind of redundancy in the vehicle’s sensors?

Yes. One example: the fully automated car Uber is testing has 20 cameras and multiple radar sensors to “see” in every direction around the vehicle. The sensor technology includes LIDAR, radar and cameras. This should provide some relief to those who worry that a stray piece of gravel on the highway might knock out a sensor.

Content Source: MyCarDoesWhat.org

The ultimate safety benefit of advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) is simple: Lives will be saved, injuries will be prevented and lessened, and crashes will be reduced. As many as 40,000 people died on U.S. roadways in 2016 alone, according to preliminary data from the National Safety Council. Approximately 94 percent of those deaths were the result of human error. Improved technology means opportunities for human error will continue to decrease, thus saving lives and preventing injuries.

How exactly will ADAS technologies improve safety? The answer depends on the specific system, but vehicle safety technologies serve three primary functions:

• Aid
• Warn
• Assist

Systems that aid

Systems that aid drivers include back-up cameras and adaptive headlights. These features improve visibility for drivers and show hazards in otherwise hard-to-see areas around a vehicle. The images are captured by cameras and sensors. These technologies already exist in many vehicles and soon will be a standard feature on all cars.

Warning Features

Warning Features do just that: Warn the driver about hazards that might be in their path. Examples include forward collision warning, lane departure warning, blind spot detection and drowsy driver detection systems. Warnings are relayed to drivers through audible alerts or vibrations. Hazards are most often detected through the use of cameras and radar sensors.

Assist technologies

Assist technologies take on a more active role to help the driver. Some of the assist features include automatic emergency braking, lane keeping assist, adaptive cruise control (a version of cruise control that maintains your speed and set following distance) and automatic parallel or perpendicular parking. Cameras and radar sensors all help make these technologies possible. However, it is important to note that these features do not replace the role of the person behind the wheel. An attentive, defensive driver remains a necessary component of all vehicles featuring ADAS technologies.

A study published in 2016 in the journal Accident Analysis and Prevention says the safety benefits of ADAS technologies will be significant. Researchers determined that if every car were equipped with blind-spot monitoring, lane departure warnings and forward collision warnings, the technologies “could prevent or reduce the severity of as many as 1.3 million crashes annually, including 133,000 injury crashes and 10,100 fatal crashes.” Drivers whose vehicles have ADAS technology stand to benefit from improved visibility, better advance warnings, the ability for a vehicle to take control in an emergency situation, and more comprehensive tools for driving in bad weather or poor road conditions. The Insurance Institute for Highway Safety also expects significant safety benefits because of ADAS technologies. An IIHS study from 2016 found that back-up cameras reduced backing crashes by 16 percent and particularly benefited drivers age 70 and older.

Content Source: MyCarDoesWhat.org

In advanced driver assistance systems, or ADAS, the key word is “assistance.”

Many ADAS technologies are here right now, and they exist in everyday, affordable cars on the market. However, it is important to remember that today’s technologies are assistive and cannot be considered as a safe replacement for a human driver. There is no fully automated vehicle on the road today that members of the public can drive – even those in testing have safety drivers that may take over. At least for now, fully automated vehicles remain in the testing stage confined to specific environments.

Much more common today are systems that watch out for you. That means you can drive a car with ADAS features that help keep you in your lane (e.g., lane keeping assist), forward collision warning or automatic emergency braking that help prevent rear-end collisions. These technologies exist to assist you, so you must be an alert, attentive driver whenever you are on the road.

Not all advanced vehicle safety technologies are created equal.

Some ADAS features provide a greater safety benefit than others. The most valuable technologies include automatic emergency braking, forward collision warning, lane departure warning, blind spot warning and adaptive headlights, according to an analysis from the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety. If those four features existed in every car, more than 10,000 lives could be saved and almost 150,000 injuries could be prevented every year, the organization states.

Names and icons for car safety features might vary.

Car manufacturers implement safety technologies in different ways. They also name these technologies differently. For instance, the driver of one vehicle brand might know automatic emergency braking technology as “Forward Emergency Braking.” But a driver of another vehicle brand might know the technology as a “Collision Mitigation Braking System.” Likewise, dashboard icons for the same function may differ depending on the car.

Both the Society of Automotive Engineers and the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration provide standards and regulations with regard to auto safety.

Download a PDF of the Safety Features Timeline

Content Source: MyCarDoesWhat.org

“IT SEEMS AN AUTOS REVOLUTION IS UPON US.”

—Consumer Reports April 2017

From Arizona to Massachusetts, the move toward fully automated vehicles is picking up speed. Since 2012, no fewer than 41 states and the District of Columbia have considered laws pertaining to fully automated vehicles on roadways. At least 13 states have ratified some sort of legislation:

Alabama, Arkansas, California, Florida, Louisiana, Michigan, New York, Nevada, North Dakota, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Utah and Virginia—and Washington D.C.

Governors in Massachusetts and Arizona have issued executive orders encouraging testing on their roads with extensive programs already underway.

Why are states so interested? Are fully automated vehicles going viral? Politicians, researchers and business leaders hope to earn the mantle of “early adopter” attracting research and investment to their region. It could put them on the map. Another major motivator is reducing crashes and traffic deaths:

• 94 percent of traffic crashes are the result of human error. Computer[RN3] controlled cars using Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) could greatly reduce crashes. ADAS is the suite of technologies that are today’s stepping stones to automated vehicles.
• When cutting-edge vehicles or new transportation models (e.g. rideshare, car share, etc) roll into town, governments want to make sure their cities are safe for traditional and automated vehicles alike.

For a worldwide map of autonomous vehicle test cities, visit https://avsincities.bloomberg.org/.

Silicon Valley of Firsts

If any place could be crowned the birthplace of “automated vehicles,” it would be Silicon Valley in California. Home to Apple, Google’s Waymo (now Alphabet), Intel, NVIDIA and Tesla, just to name a few, this high-tech, venture capital hub is 45 miles south of the San Francisco Bay Area. California has had some of the first legislation for testing automated vehicles with safety drivers behind the wheel. It is not uncommon to see cars throughout California adorned with cameras and radar devices roaming the streets. California has legislated that these test miles must be conducted with an approved safety pilot behind the traditional “driver’s wheel” of the vehicle. You can find more information about California’s legislation here: www.dmv.ca.gov/portal/dmv/detail/vr/autonomous/auto

Rust Belt Getting New Luster

In 2015, Uber ventured out of its Silicon Valley comfort zone, landing in Pittsburgh to set up the Advanced Technologies Center at Carnegie Mellon University. Pittsburgh offered an environment that the Bay Area could not: snowy weather. PennDOT, the Pennsylvania Department of Transportation, has been given broad authority to administer the Automated Vehicle Testing Policy. PennDOT requires the proper onboard technology and a driver must be sitting behind the wheel, ready to intervene if necessary. Of course, the driver still must perform the human-to-human, ride-sharing customer interface function.

Detroit, with its long automotive history, also is leading major efforts in automated vehicle research and development. According to Wired Magazine (April 2017), Ford and GM operations in Michigan have made major advancements – giving Silicon Valley companies a run for their money.

10 Cities Designated as Official Test Cities

In January 2017, the U.S. Department of Transportation designated 10 proving ground pilot sites for the testing of automated vehicles. The 10 out of 60 applicants were selected for their unique attributes, preparedness for higher levels of testing and previous infrastructure. More at: https://www.transportation.gov/briefing-room/dot1717. Former U.S. DOT Secretary Anthony Foxx says this designation will encourage cities to openly share best practices while accelerating the pace of safe deployment.

One such test site is the Iowa City-Cedar Rapids corridor. Home to The University of Iowa, this area is known for its state-of-the-art vehicle safety research, including the world renowned National Advanced Driving Simulator. The state is in the process of creating high-definition road maps that will guide automated vehicles and possibly attract other researchers to the area. The Iowa City region also offers diverse driving landscapes and wide ranging weather conditions.

Below are the other sites that were selected.

1. City of Pittsburgh and the Thomas D. Larson Pennsylvania Transportation Institute
2. Texas AV Proving Grounds Partnership
3. U.S. Army Aberdeen Test Center
4. American Center for Mobility (ACM) at Willow Run
5. Contra Costa Transportation Authority (CCTA) & GoMentum Station
6. San Diego Association of Governments
7. University of Wisconsin-Madison
8. Central Florida Automated Vehicle Partners
9. North Carolina Turnpike Authority

“When are you going to see a robot on Interstate 80? That is, I think, a very long-range future,” says Dan McGehee, director of the National Advanced Driving Simulator at the University of Iowa.

Arizona Rolls Out the Red Carpet

In 2015, Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey created the Arizona Self-Driving Vehicle Oversight Committee. The Phoenix area is buzzing with automated vehicle pilot projects. Google cars are plying the streets of Chandler and Ahwatukee testing how automated vehicles perform in punishing sun, heat and dust storms. The University of Arizona in Tucson is partnering with Uber while the people-mover company Local Motors is testing an automated shuttle bus named Olli. [1]

Massachusetts Gov. Charlie Baker’s Executive Order 572 in October 2016 established the AV Working Group to formulate a policy for testing automated vehicles in Massachusetts.

The Memorandum of Understanding requires that automated vehicles be “operated without undue risk to public safety, and at all times will have a human being inside the vehicle while it is traveling.”

While automated vehicles are not yet cruising Massachusetts, the state’s deep bench in research and academia has attracted billions of dollars for development.

MIT, Olin College and UMass Amherst are in the forefront of the tech boom. NextDroid Labs, nuTonomy, Autoliv Electronics and Amazon Robotics are high-flying local tech companies racing to create intelligent, decision-making systems for automated vehicles. A five-year, $1 billion grant from Toyota is being split between Palo Alto, CA, and Cambridge, MA. [2]

Some researchers and car makers feel the next big hurdle is to create 3D maps of all the nation’s roads. Maybe you can help? Some hope to gather the mapping data through crowd sourcing by using data taken from onboard cameras already installed.

Consumer Reports asserts that “some of the gnarliest issues still must be solved,” such as perfecting sensors that can see in all conditions, and that liability and ethical questions are in the early stages of discussion.

[1] ADOT.COM 10/17/16

[2] Shira Schoenberg – The Republican/ MassLive.com.

First came the concept: A vehicle that could drive itself without any human interaction.

Then came the legwork: How would it function? Where would designers place its cameras and sensors? Who would write the code enabling these vehicles to make split-second decisions to avoid a crash?

Many miles lie ahead on the road toward mainstream use of fully automated vehicles. The technology could save tens of thousands of lives every year, but it remains years (if not decades) from becoming a reality on the majority of streets and interstates in America. Innovation takes time to fine-tune, and it is reasonable to expect more adjustments along the way as miles driven lead to lessons learned.

In the meantime, several engineering issues must be addressed before fully automated vehicles replace driver-operated vehicles as the most common form of transportation.

“Seniors can keep their freedom even if they can’t keep their car keys. And drunk and distracted driving? History.”

-TIME.COM

Sensors

Cameras and sensors are the eyes and ears in allowing fully automated vehicles to drive safely and effectively. Miniaturization, cost and accuracy are still being worked on. And what happens if snow, ice or mud blocks the sensors? Or if snow covers the lines of the road, which then could block the vehicle from identifying an upcoming curve or lanes merging or anything else?

Drivers know all too well the hazards of driving in snow and ice. Vehicle safety technology might change, but severe weather will remain, and one unresolved issue is how fully automated vehicles will operate safely when roads are snow-covered and visibility is at a premium. Likewise, redundancies will be necessary in case vandals damage or remove high-tech cameras and sensors belonging to new vehicles.

Infrastructure

Poorly maintained roads, signs and lane markings, as well as construction zones, offer additional challenges for engineers to overcome before a high-level rollout of fully automated vehicles. A driver behind a steering wheel can identify orange cones and realize a lane is blocked off a half-mile in front of him or her. Sometimes, vehicles must veer on to the shoulder as they slowly pass by a construction zone. How can experts ensure that fully automated vehicles will be able to process the same type of information in the same way – or better?

Poor road maintenance opens the door to other potential complications with fully automated vehicles. Will these vehicles be able to safely avoid big potholes? What if signs, marking and striping are faded or missing entirely? The smooth pavement of testing tracks is far different than many deteriorating roads.

Urban environments

The first wave of fully automated vehicles is expected to be deployed in dense, urban environments such as San Francisco, New York City and Washington, D.C. Each city features high levels of traffic congestion, not to mention plenty of pedestrians and bicyclists. The driving experience can be very unpredictable.

In addition to unanticipated events, the sheer quantity of vehicles, pedestrians and objects increases the chances that a problem might arise. Traditional drivers and people on the street could lack the training and experience to know how a fully automated vehicle will behave and why.

Connectivity

Fully automated vehicles may have the capability to communicate with other vehicles (commonly known as vehicle-to-vehicle, or “V2V” technology), infrastructure (“V2I”) and everything else in its path (“V2X”). But this communication system remains a work in progress during the testing stage of these vehicles.

Driver-operator vehicles currently are not equipped to communicate with fully automated vehicles. The new vehicles also could struggle to establish communication points with infrastructure, which lags behind in many areas and might prove to be particularly challenging in rural communities. The larger-scale V2X technology faces similar complications because not all systems will be equipped to receive and return information that is disseminated by vehicles.

The Federal Automated Vehicles Policy asserts that “the rise of new technology is inevitable” and emphasizes the importance of proper planning and follow-through to promote safety. Manufacturers and other stakeholders should follow a systems-engineering approach to help them design highly automated vehicle technology “free of unreasonable safety risks,” the document’s authors state. That means engineers must develop functions so that highly automated vehicles remain in a safe state in the event of electrical, electronic or mechanical malfunctions or software errors. Cybersecurity threats and vulnerabilities also must be considered during the design process. Meanwhile, as manufacturers race to develop and distribute highly automated vehicles, agencies such as the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration will benefit from hiring experts in science, engineering and mathematics to conduct pre-market testing on new technologies.

The policy says engineering and design safety considerations should include, but not be limited to, the following possibilities:

• Actuator, sensor and communication failure
• Software errors
• Inadequate control and undesirable control actions
• Collisions with environmental objects and occupants on the road
• Collisions that could be caused by the vehicle system
• Leaving the roadway
• Loss of traction or stability
• Violations of traffic laws and or variance from expected driving methods

Software and hardware updates initiated by manufacturers could fall under government purview depending on the complexity of the updates, the document states. NHTSA would evaluate each highly automated vehicle system based on a 15-point “Safety Assessment” that covers areas such as data recording and sharing; privacy; system safety; human machine interface; post-crash behavior; object and event detection and response; and crashworthiness.

Engineers already have had a tremendous effect on vehicle safety technology, DOT says.

“New vehicle technologies developed in the 20th century – from seat belts to air bags to child seats – were once controversial,” the federal policy document states. “But after having saved hundreds of thousands of American lives, they are now considered indispensable. Advanced technologies developed in the first part of the 21st century – like automatic emergency braking and lane departure warnings – are already making U.S. roads safer. How many more lives might be saved today and in the future with highly automated vehicles?”

Content Source: MyCarDoesWhat.org

A quick survey of television and online news – CNN, CBS, FOX, The New York Times and others – allude to the promise that fully automated cars are just around the corner. Of course, the media likes a high-tech, futuristic story, but how real is it? When will the proverbial rubber of fully automated vehicles meet the road?

To be fair, there are cars on the road right now with automated features allowing them to steer, brake and accelerate automatically, but they still require a human behind the wheel. Test deployments are underway in Las Vegas, Maryland and Miami where an electric, driverless shuttle bus named Olli (localmotors.com/olli/) is operating on a fixed route. The French company NAVYA (navya.tech) operates a similar slow-moving vehicle in Europe, Australia and Las Vegas. Those highly specialized vehicles cannot handle all driving situations, and manufacturers disavow any claims of letting them perform self-driving tasks on public roads.

Are Silicon Valley, Wall Street and Detroit filling the public’s gas tank, but there’s nowhere to go? Has the hype sped past the reality? Let’s take a look.

The Great Promise & Life Saving Potential of Automated Vehicles

Driver error represents the single most important issue in understanding car crashes. Organizations concerned with public safety are excited about automated vehicles because 94 percent of crashes are the result of human error. Automated cars don’t get distracted, don’t get drowsy, don’t speed, don’t have a third glass of chardonnay and they obey traffic laws. Other groups also eagerly await the era of automated vehicles — seniors and the disabled will be afforded a new level of independence.

Without a doubt, cars of all shapes, sizes and costs are hitching a ride on the car tech express. You need not spend $95,000 to enjoy cars that start themselves, stop themselves and monitor weather or local speed limits. Some even offer a 360-degree view while backing and alert you if you might be drowsy. There are more than 35 active safety features available which may help prevent a crash. These are cause for excitement. It’s estimated that one of those technologies, automatic emergency braking (to be included in most cars by 2022), will save thousands of lives. Many of these features are available at an affordable price.

TODAY

Slow speed, fixed route, automated vehicles are here in the form of shuttles and people movers such as Olli by Local Motors.

1- 5 YEARS

Fully automated vehicles will be operating among us if you believe automakers and popular media. GM has proposed to deploy self-driving cars in 2019 as part of a ride-share service in a dense, urban market.

5-20 YEARS

There will be great advancements, but many of us will still have our old, non-automated cars. The infrastructure and GPS network must be built and refined.

20-25 YEARS

Cars are lasting longer, requiring 20-25 years just to replenish the fleet on the roads today. Just the transition period from getting older cars off the road could take a generation or two with lots of bumps along the road.

The Name Game

FOOTNOTE: Before we go further, let’s analyze the different names used for these vehicles of the future. Are they self-driving vehicles, driverless vehicles, autonomous vehicles, semi-autonomous vehicles or fully autonomous vehicles? How about none of the above? According to SAE, the Society of Automotive Engineers, these new cars are to be called “Fully Automated Vehicles.”

How could there be such a vast disparity regarding the timeline? Competing interests and venture capital could have something to do with it, not to mention geography. The federal government has set a policy hoping to avoid a national patchwork of laws and infrastructure for automation. Yet certain states or cities might have the will and the resources to adapt faster than other regions. Otherwise, a driver might be stuck with a car that drives itself perfectly in his or her own town or county, but leave that region, and the driver must revert to being a fully focused driver.

Can You Say Infrastructure?

The “just a few years away” timeline could be justified if automated vehicles depended solely on onboard radar and sensors. But they don’t. Some experts feel that one car, no matter how smart, can’t be expected to do everything. So designers and governments must also focus on the surroundings and the ability of cars to speak to each other. This is known as “vehicle-to-infrastructure” and “vehicle-to-vehicle” communication – much like the radio transponder signals sent out by every plane in the sky. This will be costly and require great leaps for traffic and highway engineers. One of the biggest obstacles facing tech companies and car companies is the vast variety of driving environments: Cities, suburbs, rural, flat, hilly, snow, fog, paved, gravel. For automated vehicles, high-definition maps are a new kind of infrastructure that is not part of the traditional roadway environment. These “HD” maps allow the car to know precisely where it is with regard to lane position, intersections, curves, etc.

Car makers are racing to the future. Most are developing safety technologies that require very little driver input. Thousands of cars can automatically maintain a safe following distance with the car in front. Cars can steer, slow down and stop by themselves. They can help center you in the lane. But a safe, reliable car that can drive itself AND play nicely with everything else on the road does not yet exist outside of the testing environment. Training and education for drivers with these new features is limited. MyCarDoesWhat.org offers deep learning and quick tips about this new technology – a “learning bridge” to the future.

When will automated vehicles populate our roads? That is not an easy question to answer, but it’s safe to say that a wide-scale release of fully automated cars to the typical American driver is not just around the corner.

Content Source: MyCarDoesWhat.org